Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Trend turns down (finally !!!)

Whew.. finally my system says its time to book profits and go short. It might be wrong, but in that case will get stopped out when the time comes for a small loss. These whipsaws will happen, and happen a lot, but its huge moves like the one we saw is what I am playing for.

Have closed the position yesterday(28th April) in last 15mins at 3370. We had gone long in March when Nifty was at 2710. There was also the rollover cost of selling March futures at 3080 and buying April futures at 3090. Thus net profit is 3370-2710-10 = 650 points for this long trade.

Interesting point if you will notice is that my last post was written 20 days back, and at that time nifty was at 3360, and yesterday i closed the position at 3370. So effectively in 20 days Nifty has hardly moved from where it was. I intend to form a table soon , where in the trade details can be regularly updated and can be seen at one glance.

So that's it from my side. Its short as of now.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

8th of April - Continue to be long in Nifty futures

That is the beauty of a trade setup which aims to catch the big trends. If you stick by it, you will get onto the big trends and ride them up or down whichever direction & make enough money to wipe out losses from a few whipsaws & have a decent profit.

So well my system is still long, been so since 13th of March, went long near 2710, its closed at 3360 today. Thats a gain of over 600 points. Not booked though, so might end with less or more, lets see. But the point is that the system works if you follow it blindly and with faith.

Anyways, its long for now. Will keep posting updates.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Nifty Trade Setup - EOD daily basis

I have developed my own trade setup for Nifty based on extensive backtesting with more than 15 years of data on Nifty.

This system is not meant for doing intraday trades, but rather for carrying positions over a number of days, thus quite similar to positional trading, with controlled risks and good profits. All such systems are essentially trend following and counter trend, this system is a mix of both.

I shall be posting my buy/sell call by the system here from now on a consistent basis and lets see how it stands the test of time.

How we take trades - we just look at Nifty in last 15 minutes of trade, and based on my excel sheet a decision is taken. On most days, we shall just simply continue to remain in the trade we have open. At times, we shall close an existing position and take an opposite position.

The last trade this setup took was to go long Nifty futures at the close of 13th of March 2009 when Nifty futures for March were trading at around 2705-10. The system has since carried the position. On expiry we sold March futures for around 3080 and rolled over position to April series, buying April futures at 3090.

Will post here on days when trend changes, or from time to time even when the trend doesnt. So do subscribe for posts via email, and you shall receive a mail in your inbox everytime there is a trend change. My calls are all free for now. Lets see if the system works for real.

Nifty Trade Setups

This blog is dedicated to Nifty Trade Setups.

Briefly, what are they?

Trade setups are a set of rules which are applied to market data to decide when to buy and when to sell. So the rules tells us to buy/sell based upon market movements and the system.

How does that make a difference

That makes a difference where it matter most - controlling human emotions - greed and fear. When I dont have to make the decisions, the system does that for me, I dont get involved emotionally and greed and fear dont have a chance to take over. This ultimately results in much better trading and greater profits. Not least because such setups are tested with lots of historical data to quantify how the system performed in the past.

If the setup performed well for a large period, then it can be expected to continue to do so in the future as well with reasonable certainity. Even if did not, the system would have inbuilt rules so that losses can be cut at some point and do not take over the system itself.